A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
